Studie der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve zur Einkommens-, Kapital- und Schuldenverteilung in den USA, September 2014 (engl. Originalfassung)
The Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) collects information about family incomes, net worth, balance sheet components, credit use, and other financial outcomes. The 2013 SCF reveals substantial disparities in the evolution of income and net worth since the previous time the survey was conducted, in 2010.
Development of Familiy Incomes
During the three years between the beginning of the 2010 and 2013 surveys, real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, the civilian unemployment rate fell from 9.9 percent to 7.5 percent, and the annual rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) averaged 2.3 percent. Although aggregate economic performance improved substantially relative to the period between the 2007 and 2010 surveys, the effect on incomes for different types of families was far from uniform. Several observations from the SCF about family incomes stand out:
- Between 2010 and 2013, mean (overall average) family income rose 4 percent in real terms, but median income fell 5 percent, consistent with increasing income concentration during this period.
- Some of the 2010 to 2013 growth differential reflected a return to trend, after the cyclical narrowing of the income distribution between 2007 and 2010, when large decreases in top incomes associated with the recent financial crisis reduced mean family income more than median family income.
- Families at the bottom of the income distribution saw continued substantial declines in average real incomes between 2010 and 2013, continuing the trend observed between the 2007 and 2010 surveys.
- Families in the middle to uppermiddle parts (between the 40th and 90th percentiles) of the income distribution saw little change in average real incomes between 2010 and 2013 and thus have failed to recover the losses experienced between 2007 and 2010.
- Only families at the very top of the income distribution saw widespread income gains between 2010 and 2013, although mean and median incomes were still below 2007 levels.
- The differentials in average income growth between 2010 and 2013 are also observed for other family groupings in which large differences in income levels are observed, notably across education groups, by race and ethnicity, homeownership status, and levels of net worth.
Development of Families’ Net Worths
The improvements in economic activity along with changes in house and corporate equity prices combined to effectively stabilize average and median family net worth (wealth) between 2010 and 2013 after both measures fell dramatically between 2007 and 2010. The CoreLogic national house price index increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent between early 2010 and early 2013, just below the rate of consumer price inflation. The value of corporate equity holdings, as measured by major stock price indexes, grew at just over a 10 percent annual rate between the two surveys, leading to large inflation-adjusted increases in equity holdings. These differential price trends had predictable effects on the distribution of changes in net worth across the population:
- Overall, between 2010 and 2013 there was little movement in median and mean net worth, as the median fell a modest 2 percent and the mean increased slightly.
- Consistent with income trends and differential holdings of housing and corporate equities, families at the bottom of the income distribution saw continued substantial declines in real net worth between 2010 and 2013, while those in the top half saw, on average, modest gains.
- Ownership rates of housing and businesses fell substantially between 2010 and 2013.
- Retirement plan participation in 2013 continued on the downward trajectory observed between the 2007 and 2010 surveys for families in the bottom half of the income distribution. Participation rebounded slightly for upper-middle income families, but it did not move back to the levels observed in 2007.
- The value of direct and indirect holdings of corporate equities increased between 2010 and 2013 though the ownership rate fell. The decrease in stock ownership rates was most pronounced for the bottom half of the income distribution.
- The decrease in ownership rates for housing and corporate equity holdings was concentrated in the bottom and upper-middle parts of the income distribution, though the decrease in business ownership was concentrated among higher-income families
Development of Families’ Dept Holdings
Between 2010 and 2013, interest rates fell on most types of consumer debt: Typical fixedrate 30-year mortgage interest rates fell from 5.3 percent to 3.5 percent, new vehicle loan interest rates fell from 6.5 percent to 4.7 percent, and credit card interest rates fell from 14.3 percent to 11.9 percent. At the same time, debt holdings of families decreased, and many aspects of families’ debt circumstances improved:
- Overall, debt obligations fell between 2010 and 2013:Median debt declined 20 percent, and mean debt decreased 13 percent for families with debt.
- For the median family with debt, debt burdens also fell between 2010 and 2013: Leverage ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and payment-to-income ratios all fell. The fraction of families with payment-to-income ratios greater than 40 percent declined below the level seen in 2001.
- Much of the decline in debt can be explained by a large decline in the fraction of families with home-secured debt, which fell from 47.0 percent to 42.9 percent, a decline that is only partly explained by the much smaller drop in homeownership.
- Between 2010 and 2013, the fraction of families with credit card debt also decreased. Median and mean balances for families with credit card debt fell 18 percent and 25 percent, respectively, and the fraction of families that pay off credit cards every month increased.
- The fraction of families considered credit constrained—those who reported being denied credit, as well as those who did not apply for credit for fear of being denied—declined slightly from 28.3 percent in 2010 to 27.6 percent in 2013.
- Although many measures of debt and debt obligations indicate that debt has fallen, education debt increased substantially between 2010 and 2013.
Die vollständige Studie finden Sie hier (pdf).