Studie von Oxfam, 5.11.2021 (engl. Originalfassung)
In this new briefing commissioned by Oxfam based on analysis by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and SEI, we provide estimates of the impact of the NDCs on the per capita consumption emissions of different global income groups in 2030 – revealing the stark inequality between the people whose carbon footprints are set to be compatible with the 1.5⁰C Paris goal, and those whose are not. We estimate that:
• People in the richest 1% of the global population are set to have per capita consumption emissions footprints in 2030 that are still 25% higher than in 1990, 16 times higher than the global average, and 30 times higher than the global per capita level compatible with the 1.5⁰C goal, while the footprints of the poorest half of the global population are set to remain well below the 1.5⁰C-compatible level.
• The share of total global emissions associated with the consumption of the richest 1% is set to continue to grow, from 13% in 1990, to 15% in 2015 and 16% in 2030.
• In 2015–30, the global ‘middle classes’8 are on course for per capita emissions cuts that are closest to (though still far from) the global 1.5⁰C-compatible per capita level – which, given this global income group saw the fastest emissions growth rates in 1990–2015, is a sign of the so-called ‘Paris effect’9 in transforming the course of emissions trends.
• The geography of global carbon inequality is set to change, with an increasing share of the emissions of the world’s richest 1% linked to citizens in middle-income countries.
• At national level in each of the major emitting countries, the richest 10% of citizens are set to have per capita emissions in 2030 that are substantially higher than the global average per capita level compatible with the 1.5⁰C goal.
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