Zusammenfassung der Studie von WHO und OECD zu den gesundheitlichen Folgen und den Kosten der Luftverschmutzung in Europa, 28.4.2015 (engl. Originalfassung)
Executive summary
This study reports on the economic cost of the public health impacts of ambient and household air pollution, with particular reference to the countries of the WHO European Region.
Current estimates of the joint effects of ambient and household air pollution include an estimated 7 million premature deaths globally each year, representing one in eight of the total deaths worldwide.
In the WHO European Region as a whole, the estimated mortality in 2010 was approximately 600 000 premature deaths, which represents a marked decrease from 2005 for the Region overall. Only half-a-dozen countries out of the 53 WHO European Region Member States registered a slight increase in deaths. The evidence from epidemiology underpinning these estimates is well established, while the evidence from economics shows that ambient and household air pollution also imposes an economic cost to society of several trillion dollars per year, globally.
Present-day economics uses a standard method for assessing the cost of mortality at the level of society: the “value of statistical life” (VSL), as derived from aggregating individuals’ willingness to pay to secure a marginal reduction in the risk of premature death. This permits researchers and policy-makers to assess the comparative magnitude of the value that societies attach to a given health impact, and of proposals to mitigate it, using money as a common metric. The economic cost of a mortality impact is given by the VSL value, multiplied by the number of premature deaths. The economic benefit of a mitigating action becomes the same VSL value, multiplied by the number of prevented premature deaths.
Owing to a multi-year research effort spearheaded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a set of values for average adult VSL in 2005 is now available, along with a method to compute country-specific VSL values for countries both within and outside the OECD and for years beyond 2005.
In contrast, a standard and commonly agreed method by which to measure the cost of morbidity is not yet available. Research is currently being progressed toward establishing an agreed method and agreed values but at present this research can only proceed with indicative estimates. Recent practice and available evidence provide a rationale for using an additional 10% of the overall cost of mortality as a best estimate for the additional cost of morbidity.
On the basis of this method, and these approaches and assumptions, it is possible to estimate the economic cost of air pollution health impact in the countries of the WHO European Region. As of 2010:
• the annual economic cost of premature deaths from air pollution across the countries of the WHO European Region stood at US$ 1.431 trillion; and
• the overall annual economic cost of health impacts and mortality from air pollution, including estimates for morbidity costs, stood at US$ 1.575 trillion.
These results are relatively robust, in that the most common variations on this method and these assumptions do not alter the overarching conclusion: the health impact of air pollution is substantial, and given that good health and a long life are obviously highly valued by society, economic analyses show that the economic cost of air pollution – and hence the benefits of cleaner air – are very large.
In comparing these huge estimated societal costs to country-specific gross domestic product figures, the significance and magnitude of these costs become even more evident: in 44 WHO European Member States the societal costs are equivalent to more than 1% of the respective gross domestic product and in only four of the 48 Member States considered in the analysis do these societal costs amount to less than 1%.
Available evidence on air pollution emission sources suggests that, across the WHO European Region as a whole, several sectors should be targeted for abatement policies. Motorized road transport, household fuel combustion together with agriculture and industrial coal burning sources are of special concern, in terms of their contribution to the health impact of ambient and household air pollution, and the consequent societal costs.
A relatively successful, if imperfect, regulatory regime on air quality in Europe has resulted in substantial progress, especially in European Union Member States, in terms of health impacts and costs, even in the absence of a pricing system capable of taking full account of externalities.
However, in view of the persistence of the problem of air pollution in Europe, filling existing knowledge gaps and correcting distortions in taxes and subsidies – for example, the preference of diesel over petrol – remains highly desirable.
To pursue this goal, operating in the anticipated period of time until a full correction of prices can be achieved, there is a case for conceiving the chronological framework of correction following the approach: regulation + investment + pricing, based on:
• strengthening existing regulation and compliance;
• using available evidence on external costs in relevant investment decisions; and
• closing the information gaps required to prepare a model of fully corrected prices.
The framework presented above – and discussed in further detail in the present report – can be used to provide practical guidance on where and how to strengthen the policy response to the problem of air pollution’s health impacts.
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