Studie des Imperial Grantham Institute, 9.7.2025
The findings of this analysis and many others are extremely clear: heat extremes all across Europe are increasing rapidly due to human-induced climate change.
In all locations, the datasets show increasing trends. In 10 of the 12 locations (i.e. excluding Milan and Lisbon), these increases are statistically significant at the 95% level and vary between 2–4°C, in line with previous studies. This intensification is likely a combination of the direct warming of the atmosphere due to greenhouse gases, coupled to the increase in southerly atmospheric flows over Europe in summer, which itself is due to the increased likelihood of planetary wave resonance events. Detecting statistical significance at the local (grid square) level indicates how strong these increases are.
Most importantly, though, this strong observed increase presents a significant intensification of experienced heat that is dangerous to people’s health. In particular, this heatwave occurred relatively early in the summer. Such early season heat tends to be especially deadly, as people have not yet adjusted to warmer temperatures. A comparison of changes in June vs July heatwaves also suggest that such early season heat could be becoming hotter at a faster rate than the wider summer.
Finally, regardless of statistical significance in individual cases, every line of evidence in this study and myriad others point to the warming of extreme heat across all of Europe.
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