UNEP Adaptation Gap Report, 1.11.2021 (engl. Originalfassung)
New estimates of the costs of adaptation and the estimated financial needs for adaptation from developing countries indicate higher values than previously reported. The review of the most recent adaptation cost estimates from the literature and the finance needs expressed by countries’ submissions to the UNFCCC resulted in a number of major findings. First, estimates of the economic costs of climate change in developing countries are now generally higher than indicated in earlier studies. This is true both later in the century, under higher warming scenarios, but crucially also
over the next two decades even under ambitious mitigation scenarios. Second, the estimated annual adaptation costs in the literature are now also generally in the upper range of the 2016 estimate of the Adaptation Gap Report of US$ 140–300 billion by 2030 and US$ 280–500 billion by 2050. Third, a review of updated NDCs and NAPs indicates that estimates of adaptation financing needs are increasing in many countries, often due to the incorporation of more sectors. A sectoral analysis of submissions reveals that the four sectors of agriculture, infrastructure, water and disaster risk management make up three-quarters of quantified adaptation finance needs so far (figure ES.3). Taken together, these findings suggest increasing costs of adaptation compared to previous AGR assessments, particularly in the event of failing to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the increase in the global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This new emerging evidence means a more detailed and systemic stocktake of the costs of adaptation and finance needs is required.
The evidence suggests that the adaptation finance gap is larger than indicated in 2020 and widening. Despite a recent trend of gradually increasing international public adaptation finance for developing countries up to 2019, adaptation finance flows are projected to stabilize or possibly even decline as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to financial institutions and governments – including those in advanced economies, which provide the majority of dedicated international adaptation funding – needing to prioritize limited resources to meet the urgent health and financial needs caused by COVID-19. While conclusive data is still pending, the most recent analysis indicates that climate finance flows to developing countries (for both mitigation and adaptation) reached US$ 79.6 billion in 2019. In the absence of a significant increase of around US$ 20 billion (26 per cent) in 2020, the US$ 100 billion mobilization goal for 2020 will not have been met. Despite the limitations of the available evidence, estimated adaptation costs and likely adaptation financing needs in developing countries are five to ten times greater than current international public adaptation finance flows. Evidence suggests that the gap is larger than indicated in the previous AGR (2020) and is widening, due to adaptation costs and finance needs being higher and funding flows remaining stable or decreasing.There is an urgent need to scale up and further increase public adaptation finance both for direct investment and for overcoming barriers to private-sector adaptation.
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