Studie von Carbon Tracker, 4.6.2020 (engl. Originalfassung)
The fossil fuel system is being disrupted by the forces of cheaper renewable technologies and more aggressive government policies. In one sector after another these are driving peak demand, which leads to lower prices, less profit, and stranded assets. The COVID-19 crisis is now accelerating this.
Our analysis finds falling demand, lower prices and rising investment risk is likely to slash the value of oil, gas and coal reserves by nearly two thirds, increasing the risk and likelihood of stranded assets. The four main consequences of of lower prices, as highlight in chart below, are:
- Lower rents. As the chart shows, the largest quantum of change is the fall in the amounts of rent. This means less money for the governments of petrostates.
- Lower profits. Profits fall not just for the high cost companies, but right across the system.
- Totally stranded assets. When prices fall below variable costs, you have totally stranded assets.
- Lower capex. As companies struggle to survive and figure out that growth is over, so they reduce their capex.
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