»Rüstungsausgaben: Die USA kürzen, China stockt auf«

Global military expenditure fell in 2012, to $1753 billion, equivalent to 2.5 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP). Although the fall was only 0.5 per cent in real terms, this was the first decrease since 1998. The small overall reduction is the result of falls in the West—spending fell in North America, in most of Western and Central Europe and in Australia—that were only partly offset by increases in much of the developing world and in East-ern Europe, especially Russia. This may indicate the beginning of a shift in the balance of world military spending away from the West, although it still accounts for a clear majority of global military spending. From 15 April 2013 the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database includes newly released information on military expenditure in 2012. This Fact Sheet describes the global, regional and national trends in military expenditure that are revealed by the new data, with a special focus on secur ity spending in Central America.

LONG-TERM GLOBAL TRENDS

Despite the fall in 2012 from the peak of 2010 and 2011, world military expenditure remained at historically high levels: spending in 2012 was still higher in real terms than the peak near the end of the cold war.

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After the end of the cold war, world military expenditure fell significantly, mostly due to decreases by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and former members of the Warsaw Pact. Spending reached its nadir in the mid-to-late 1990s and then started to rise gradually. The attacks on the United States of 11 September 2011 prompted 8 years of rapidly increasing spend-ing. The increase was led by the USA, fuelled by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but it was shared by most other countries, especially rising powers such as China, India and Russia. As the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis began to have an impact on government budgets and as the USA began to wind down its wars in Afghani-stan and Iraq, the world total levelled off after 2009 and has now begun to fall. Given the continuing drawdown from Afghanistan and ongoing efforts to reduce budget deficits in the USA and Europe, it is likely that the world total will continue to fall in the coming years, despite probable continued increases in other parts of the world.

THE TOP 15 SPENDERS

The list of the top 15 military  spenders in 2012 includes the  same countries as in 2011, with some changes in order. Collectively, the top  15 were responsible for more than four-fifths of all military expenditure in 2012. The United States alone was responsible for nearly two-fifths. Changes in the spending of the top 15 spenders reflect the shift in  spending from the West to other  parts of the world: while there were significant falls in the USA, Italy, Australia and Canada and only minor changes (less than 1 per cent) in Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, there were significant increases in Russia, Saudi Arabia and China and smaller increases in South Korea and Turkey. However, there was only a small fall in India and almost no change in Brazil.

The effects of the 2008 global financial crisis can also be seen among the key emerging (or re-emerging) powers in the top 15 list. The rates of increase of military spending of Brazil, China, South Korea and Saudi Arabia all fell substantially after 2008, while India’s formerly rapid growth actually reversed. The rate of increase in Russia in 2009–12 was only slightly down, how-ever, while Turkey went from a small decrease to a small increase. 

REGIONAL TRENDS

While military spending by states in North America and Western and Cen-tral Europe continued to account for a clear majority of the world total in 2012 (see figure 4), regional patterns of military expenditure in 2012 show, for the most part, a clear split between a downward trend in the developed world on the one hand, and increases in developing countries and former Soviet states on the other (see figures 5 and 6). The major exceptions to this pattern are sub-Saharan Africa, where military expenditure fell by 3.2 per cent in 2012, and Central and South Asia, where spending fell by 1.6 per cent. The effects of the 2008 global financial crisis can also be seen in the regional trends. Even though military spending continued to increase in Africa, Asia Latin America and the Middle East, the indir ect effects of the economic turmoil can be seen there. Weaker demand from the West has slowed rates of economic growth, leading in turn to slower rates of increase in military spend-ing in many cases (see figure 7). While all regions increased spending over the period 2003–2009, there were falls in several regions over the period 2009–12 and reduced rates of growth in others. The exceptions are the Middle East and North Africa, where the rate of increase has actually accelerated; reasons for this may include higher oil prices, tensions between Gulf states and Iran, and possibly the effects of the Arab Spring. 

The United States

The USA’s military expenditure fell by 6 per cent in real terms in 2012, but it was still 69 per cent higher than in 2001, when the ‘global war on terrorism’ began. While the USA remained by far the world’s largest military spender, its share of the total decreased to 39 per cent, the first time it has fallen below 40 percent since the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991. Nonetheless, US spending was still more than the combined spending of the next 10 countries. The fall in 2012 is mostly the result of a reduction in spending on Overseas Contingency Operations (OCOs) in Afghani stan and Iraq, from $159 billion in 2011 to $115 billion in 2012. In addition, the expenditure ceilings imposed on all government departments by the 2011 Budget Control Act was projected to lead to a $15 billion reduction in spending in 2012 compared to previous plans. The majority of the cuts due to the Budget Control Act, however, will begin to take effect in 2013, including the auto-matic cuts required by ‘sequestration’, which will amount to around $55 billion each year from military spending over the period 2013–21.

South America

 Military expenditure in South America increased by 3.8 per cent in 2012. This is despite a small fall in Brazil, which accounted for just over half of the regional total. Military spending in Paraguay increased by 43 per cent in 2012, follow-ing a plan to modernize the country’s armed forces with new equipment such as tanks, aircraft and naval equipment. Venezuela also increased military expenditure by 42 per cent in 2012, after 3 years of sharp falls that almost halved its military spending. The government agreed a $4 billion loan from Russia that is intended for investment in new equip-ment over 2 years (2012 and 2013). Colombia increased its military spending by 11 per cent in real terms as it seeks to implement a 4-year investment plan. During 2012 the government allocated $1 billion for the purchase of satellites, helicopters, communication equipment and armoured vehicles, among other things. Argentina, Chile and Peru also made significant increases. Argentina has now increased its military spending by 132 per cent since 2003, despite having made few major arms purchases; according to SIPRI arms trans-fers data, Argentina was the 82nd largest importers of major conventional weapons for the period 2008–12. Personnel costs absorbed 78 per cent of its military spending in 2012.  

Western and Central Europe

In Western and Central Europe, the decreasing trend since 2010 continued in 2012. The largest decreases were generally in Central Europe and the most debt-affected countries of Southern Europe, with the possible exception of Greece (whose budgeted increase in 2012 may not have resulted in an actual increase in spending). Between 2008 and 2012, 20 of the 37 countries in the region reduced mili-tary spending by more than 10 per cent in real terms, including all but 3 countries in Central Europe. Cuts by the major spenders in Western Europe have been more modest: between 2008 and 2012 the UK cut spending by 5.2 per cent and France by 3.8 per cent, while Germany actually increased spending by 2.6 per cent. Spending in the UK and Germany is budgeted to fall over the next few years, however. Overall, military spending in Western and Central Europe fell by 1.6 per cent between 2011 and 2012. The regional total was 6.9 per cent lower than when the crisis began, in 2008, while that of the 26 European countries that were NATO members in 2012 was 7.5 per cent lower. 

Russia

Military expenditure rose by 16 per cent in real terms in Russia in 2012. Pro-jected increases will take military spending from 4.4 per cent of GDP in 2012 to 4.8 per cent in 2015. Russia’s recent increases follow the implementation of the ambitious 2011–20 State Armaments Plan, which aims to spend 20.7 tril-lion roubles ($705 billion) on military equipment by 2020, of which 19 trillion ($647 billion) is for the Ministry of Defence. The programme involves the replacement of 70 per cent of Russia’s armaments with modern weapons and is part of a broader effort to reform and modernize the Russian armed forces. 

Asia

Military spending continued to increase in Asia in 2012, although at a slower rate than in previous years. China’s military expenditure increased by 7.8 per cent in real terms, to $166 billion. Its military spending rose by 175 per cent in real terms between 2003 and 2012, the largest increase for the period among the top 15 spenders. Other countries with notable increases in military spending during the period 2003–12 were Viet Nam (130 per cent) and Indonesia (73 per cent). Both are investing heavily in naval equipment although they have different motivations for doing so: for Viet Nam, it is the perceived threat from China’s increasing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, and for Indonesia it is a major military modernization programme to control its vast territory and terri torial waters. India, in contrast, cut military spending in 2012 despite ongoing tensions on the China–India border. 

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