Zusammenfassung des SIPRI Jahresberichts 2025, 16.6.2025 (engl. Original)
The era of nuclear weapons reductions appears to have ended. Bilateral nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA entered crisis some years ago and is now almost over. Revitalized national debates in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia about nuclear status and strategy suggest there is some potential for more states to join the nuclear club. The signs are that a new qualitative nuclear arms race is gearing up and, compared with the last one, the risks are likely to be more d verse and more serious. Among the key points of competition will be technological capacities in-cyberspace, outer space and ocean space. Thus, the idea of who is ahead in the race will be even more elusive and intangible, and the old largely numerical formulas of arms control will no longer suffice.
With President Trump’s return to the White House, there is a repeat of the paradoxical situation experienced during his first administration, in which none of the three great powers is committed to defending and upholding the world order. China, as a rising power, Russia, as a declining power, and the USA, as a profoundly disaffected power under Trump, all seek freedom from the constraints of agreed rules whenever they are inconvenient. One way forward is for medium and small powers to work together in coalitions with like minded governments on specific goals. Cooperation is of value even when it is not comprehensive. It is a pragmatic, viable approach: the new realism. A return to an era of reductions to the global nuclear arsenal, however, requires agreement among the three great powers. A new, general understanding is needed that nuclear weapons do not buy security and that their existence demands balanced behaviour by political leaders. Initial small steps towards reducing risk could form guardrails against disaster. Together with the voices of an informed public, they could also be part of building pressure on the three great powers to take the next steps in reducing their nuclear arsenals.
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