Studie der Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft PricewaterhouseCoopers zu europäischen Banken, 15.8.2012 (engl. Originalfassung)
Executive Summary
Over the last 12 months, transaction levels in the non core loan portfolio and NPL market have increased significantly, with banks more actively looking to dispose non strategic or non performing parts of their loan portfolios. So has the “golden age” of investing in distressed debt finally started?
We believe that the European deleveraging process is still at a very early stage. We strongly believe therefore that the market has significant room for growth and we estimate that non core loan portfolios with a face value in excess of EUR 50bn will be transacted by the end of 2012.
According to our latest estimates, total European non core loan assets amount to EUR 2.5trn with European NPLs exceeding EUR 1trn at the end of 2011, an increase of c.10% compared to 2010. Spain, Ireland and Italy were the largest economies experiencing a significant increase in NPLs from 2010 to 2011. Germany and the UK were the two large non core asset markets where asset quality appears to have stabilised with no further NPL increases reported.
With almost all major European governments implementing significant austerity and budget deficit reduction programmes, the likelihood of European asset quality improving in 2012 has decreased significantly.
Transaction levels for non core and non performing loan portfolio assets, have increased by 227% between 2010 and 2011 and have made a very strong start during 2012 with EUR 27bn of non core assets transacting between January and June 2012 (see Graph 1). However, the relative transaction sizes compared to the total volume of non core and non performing loan portfolio assets suggest that the deleveraging process is likely to be a very protracted one.
We estimate that investors are currently sitting on c.EUR 65bn of funds available to invest in loan assets coming out from the banks deleveraging process. Even after taking into account the effects of investor leverage, it is evident that banks who are successful in matching the right assets to the right investors and are willing to explore vendor financing options will have a significant advantage in achieving a successful sale.
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