Studie des Stockholmer Instituts für internationale Friedensforschung (SIPRI) zu Trends im internationalen Waffenhandel 2012, 18.3.2013 (engl. Originalfassung)
Trends in international arms transfers, 2012
Paul Holtom, Mark Bromley, Pieter D. Wezeman and Siemon T. Wezeman
The volume of international transfers of major conventional weapons was 17 per cent higher in the period 2008–12 than in 2003–2007 (see figure 1). The five biggest exporters in the period 2008–12 were the United States, Russia, Germany, France and China. This is the first time since the end of the cold war that a state from outside Europe and North America has appeared among the five largest arms exporters.
The five biggest importers in 2008–12 were India, China, Pakistan, South Korea and Singapore. The flow of arms to Asia and Africa increased notably between 2008–12 and 2003–2007, while flows to Europe and the Middle East decreased. Among the noteworthy deliveries in 2012 were China’s com- missioning of its first aircraft carrier and India’s receipt of an Akula nuclear- powered submarine from Russia.
From 18 March 2013 the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database includes newly released information on arms transfers during 2012 (see box 1). This Fact Sheet describes the trends in international arms transfers that are revealed by the new data. It lists the main exporters and importers in the period 2008–12
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and describes the regional trends. Since the volume of deliveries of arms can fluctuate significantly from one year to the next, SIPRI uses a five-year moving aver- age to give a more stable measure of trends in inter- national transfers of major conventional weapons.
The Top 5 Exporters, 2008–12
The USA and Russia remained by far the largest exporters of arms (see figure 2). The volume of arms exported by the top 5 suppliers in 2008–12 was 14 per cent higher than the volume exported by the top 5 sup- pliers in 2003–2007; however, their collective share of total exports dropped from 78 per cent to 75 per cent. For the first five-year period since 1950, the UK was not among the top 5 suppliers in 2008–12: China displaced it to become the fifth largest exporter.
The United States
Asia and Oceania was the biggest recipient region of US weapons, accounting for 45 per cent of US deliver- ies. The Middle East accounted for 27 per cent and Europe for 18 per cent.
Aircraft made up 62 per cent of the volume of US deliveries in 2008–12. Among these deliveries were 49 combat aircraft, including the first 2 F-35s (to the UK). The F-35 is the most significant future US arms export pro- gramme.
Iraq and Afghanistan have become significant recipients of US major weapons in connection with the withdrawal of US combat forces and the handover of operations to local forces. In 2008–12 Iraq and Afghanistan each received 4 per cent of US exports. Deliveries included large numbers of light armoured vehicles for internal security operations. However, Iraq also received tanks and ordered 36 F-16 combat aircraft.
Russia
Asia and Oceania received 65 per cent of Russian arms exports in 2008–12, followed by Africa (17 per cent) and the Middle East (9 per cent). India remained the largest recipient of Russian arms exports, with China and Viet Nam also among the top 5 recipients of Russian exports. Russia has contrib- uted significant materiel to the arms build-up in South East Asia, delivering an estimated 37 Su-30MK and Su-27S combat aircraft, along with a variety of missiles, to Indonesia, Malaysia and Viet Nam during 2008–12.
Aircraft accounted for 46 per cent and missiles for 20 per cent of Russian arms exports. During 2008–12 Russia exported an estimated 343 Mi-17 heli- copters to 26 states for military and internal security purposes. Almost half of these helicopters were delivered to states in Asia and Oceania (166 heli- copters), followed by recipients in the Americas (57), the Middle East (48), Europe (43) and Africa (29).
Germany
German arms exports decreased by 8 per cent between 2003–2007 and 2008–12. The fall coincides with the completion of deliveries under several high-value deals for naval and land systems made in the 2000s.
Other states in Europe received 35 per cent of Germany’s arms exports in 2008–12, followed by Asia and Oceania (31 per cent) and the Americas (17 per cent).
The Middle East received 14 per cent of German arms exports in 2008–12 and further high-value deals are under discussion. These include the pos- sible sale to Saudi Arabia of 600–800 Leopard-2A7+ tanks, up to 100 Dingo-2 armoured vehicles and several hundred Boxer armoured vehicles, as well as the possible sale to Qatar of up to 200 Leopard-2A7+ tanks. During 2012 these prospective sales—together with agreed deals with Algeria (see below)—were at the centre of a long-running domestic political debate about the level of restrictiveness of German arms export controls.
France
France’s arms exports decreased by 18 per cent between 2003–2007 and 2008–12. States in Asia and Oceania received 54 per cent of French arms exports in 2008–12, followed by other states in Europe (14 per cent) and Africa (13 per cent).
Like Germany, the fall in French exports coincides with the completion of deliveries under several high-value deals for naval, air and land systems made in the 2000s. At the end of 2012 France had several unfulfilled orders for high-value weapon systems, including 10 submarines ordered by Brazil and India, 7 frigates ordered by Malaysia and Morocco, and 175 combat aircraft ordered by India.
The Middle East received 11 per cent of French arms exports in 2008–12, and France has orders for a number of weapon systems from states in this region. The issue of supplying arms to states in the Middle East has aroused far less political controversy in France than it has in Germany.
China
The volume of Chinese exports of major conventional weapons roseby 162 per cent between 2003–2007 and 2008–12, and China’s share of the volume of international arms exports increased from 2 to 5 per cent. As a result, for the first time since 1986–90, China ranked as the fifth largest sup- pliers of major arms. During 2008–12 Asia and Oceania received 74 per cent of the volume of Chinese arms exports and Africa 13 per cent.
Pakistan—which accounted for 55 per cent of Chinese arms exports—is likely to remain the largest recipient of Chinese arms in the coming years due to large outstanding and planned orders for combat aircraft, submarines and frigates from China. Recent major deals indicate that China is establish- ing itself as a substantial arms supplier to a growing number of large arms recipients, including Algeria, Morocco and Venezuela.
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