Studie von Wissenschaftlern der Princeton University und der Berkely University zum Zusammenhang von Klimawandel und globalem Konfliktrisiko, 1.8.2013 (engl. Originalfassung)
Findings from a growing corpus of rigorous quantitative research across multiple disciplines suggest that past climatic events have exerted significant influence on human conflict. This influence appears to extend across the world, throughout history, and at all scales of social organization. We do not conclude that climate is the sole - or even primary - driving force in conflict, but we do find that when large climate variations occur, they can have substantial effects on the incidence of conflict across a variety of contexts. The median effect of a 1σ change in climate variables generates an 14% change in the risk of intergroup conflict and a 4% change in interpersonal violence, across the studies that we review where it is possible to calculate standardized effects. If future populations respond similarly to past populations, then anthropogenic climatechange has the potential to substantially increase conflict around the world, relative to a world without climate change.
Although there is remarkable convergence of quantitative findings across disciplines, many open questions remain. Existing research has successfully established a causal relationship between climate and conflict but is unable to fully explain the mechanisms. This fact motivates our proposed research agenda and urges caution when applying statistical estimates to future warming scenarios. Importantly, however, it does not imply that we lack evidence of a causal association. The studies in this analysis were selected for their ability to provide reliable causal inferences and they consistently point toward the existence of at least one causal pathway. To place the state of this research in perspective, it is worth recalling that statistical analyses identified the smoking of tobacco as a proximate cause of lung cancer by the 1930's, although the research community was unable to provide a detailed account of the mechanisms explaining the linkage until many decades later. So although future research will be critical in pinpointing why climate affects human conflict, disregarding the potential effect of anthropogenic climate change on human conflict in the interim is, in our view, a dangerously misguided interpretation of the available evidence.
Numerous competing theories have been proposed to explain the linkages between the climate and human conflict, but none have been convincingly rejected and all appear to be consistent with at least some existing results. It seems likely that climatic changes influence conflict through multiple pathways that may differ between contexts and innovative research to identify these mechanisms is a top research priority. Achieving this research objective holds great promise, as the policies and institutions necessary for conflict resolution can only be built if we understand why conflicts arise. The success of such institutions will be increasingly important in the coming decades as changes in climatic conditions amplify the risk of human conflicts.
Die vollständige Studie findet sich hier (pdf).