BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 13.6.2017 (engl. Originalfassung)
Stability and energy markets don’t go together – booms and busts; rebounds and reversals are the norm. But the movements and volatility seen last year were particularly interesting since energy markets were buffeted by two separate forces: the continued adjustment to the short-run cyclical shocks that have rocked energy markets in recent years, particularly the oil market; and the growing gravitational pull of the longer-run energy transition that is under way. In recent years the nature of the cyclical adjustments has been increasingly affected by the longer-run transition that is shaping global energy markets. On the demand side: the shift in the centre of gravity to fast-growing developing economies, led by China and India; together with a slowing in overall energy growth as it is used ever more efficiently. And on the supply side, the secular movement towards cleaner, lower carbon energy sources, led by renewable energy, driven by technological advances and environmental needs.
Primary energy grew by just 1% (171 mtoe) in 2016, almost half the average rate seen over the previous 10 years. Some of this weakness reflected short-run factors: global GDP grew by just 3% last year, its slowest rate since 2002 – other than at the time of the financial crisis – driven in part by a slowdown in industrial production, the most energy-intensive sector of the economy. But the weakness is also indicative of the longer-run trend towards slower energy growth driven by gains in energy efficiency. This is the third consecutive year in which energy consumption has grown by 1% or less, with energy intensity – the average amount of energy needed to produce a unit of GDP – falling at historically unprecedented rates.
Perhaps the most striking feature across the different fuels was the continuing rapid descent of coal, with consumption (-1.7%, -53 mtoe) falling sharply for the second consecutive year and the share of coal within primary energy declining to its lowest level since 2004. The turnaround in the fortunes of coal over the past few years is stark: it is only four years ago that coal was the largest source of energy demand growth. There may be further ups and downs in the fortunes of coal over coming years, but the weakness in recent years does seem to signal a fairly decisive break from the past.
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