»Die weltweiten Maßnahmen zur Senkung der Treibhausgasemissionen waren nicht schnell genug, um die globale Erderwärmung von 1,5 °C über dem vorindustriellen Niveau zu verhindern«

Human-induced global warming is nearing 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and observed global temperatures have been increasing at about 0.25°C per decade (Forster et al. 2026), with some recent studies showing an even higher rate (Foster and Rahmstorf 2026). Extrapolating current trends, global warming may reach 1.5°C around the end of this decade. A recent operational decadal forecasts (WMO 2026) assigned 3-in-4 chance that 14 | UNEP | Limiting Overshoot the 2026–2030 five-year mean in global temperatures (reflecting the combined effect of human-induced warming and natural variability) will exceed 1.5°C. Taken together, the available evidence suggests that the central estimate of human-induced global warming will be crossing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next few years. The remaining carbon budget—the total amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted while meeting a specified temperature goal—continues to be revised downward as global emissions continue to consume it, and science is updated. To have a 50 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, only about 130 billion tons of CO₂ (GtCO₂) can be emitted from 2026 onwards (Forster et al. 2026). However, emissions remain at record highs. In 2024 alone, fossil fuels and industry produced around 40 GtCO₂ (Friedlingstein et al. 2025). At this rate, the remaining carbon budget for staying within 1.5°C would be exhausted in roughly three years. Put differently, to remain within this budget, global CO2 emissions would need to decline linearly from 2025 levels to zero in just over six years.

A further challenge is the persistent implementation gap between pledged emission reductions and policies currently in place to deliver them. Under currently implemented or planned policies, global emissions are projected not to decline but to remain broadly stable through 2030 (UNEP 2025b). In both cases, the outlook to 2030 remains markedly above levels consistent with pathways that limit warming below 2°C, let alone return it to 1.5°C by 2100 after a limited overshoot. The existence of both ambition and implementation gaps has been consistently highlighted in scientific assessments over many years (UNEP 2015; UNEP 2016; UNEP 2017; UNEP 2018; UNEP 2019; UNEP 2020; UNEP 2021; UNEP 2022; UNEP 2023; UNEP 2024b; UNEP 2025b)

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